000
WTPZ23 KNHC 060843
TCMEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
0900 UTC THU AUG 06 2009
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 131.2W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  937 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  35SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT.......105NE 135SE  75SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 131.2W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 130.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.2N 132.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT...105NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.4N 133.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...105NE 105SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.5N 135.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...105NE 105SE  90SW 105NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.4N 138.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT...105NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.0N 143.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE   0SE   0SW  35NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 20.0N 148.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 20.0N 154.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 131.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG