000
WTPZ22 KNHC 010234
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072019
0300 UTC THU AUG 01 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 128.8W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE  60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 128.8W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 128.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.7N 131.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.4N 133.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  20SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.0N 136.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.6N 139.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.7N 145.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  40SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 18.5N 150.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.0N 154.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 128.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE