000
WTPZ22 KNHC 202035
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 109.4W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  80SE  70SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 109.4W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 111.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.3N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 20.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 109.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA