000 WTPZ22 KNHC 200230 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 0300 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.2W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.2W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 107.9W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N 109.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 110.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.9N 111.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 112.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.4N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 21.0N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 108.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN