000 WTPZ22 KNHC 191454 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 1500 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.7W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.7W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.8N 108.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N 109.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.4N 110.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.7N 112.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 22.5N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 107.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA