000 WTPZ22 KNHC 190850 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 0900 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.1W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.1W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.6N 107.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.4N 108.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.0N 110.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.7N 111.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.5N 114.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 107.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN