000
WTPZ22 KNHC 182037
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC THU SEP 18 2014
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF
THE TRACK COULD REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 105.9W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT.......100NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 105.9W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 105.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 106.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.2N 107.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.8N 110.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 105.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA