000 WTPZ22 KNHC 181435 TCMEP2 HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 1500 UTC THU SEP 18 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 105.7W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 105.7W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.0N 106.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.7N 107.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.4N 109.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 112.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 105.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA