000
WTPZ22 KNHC 171454
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1500 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO
TO PLAYA PERULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA
PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PLAYA SAN TELMO
TO ZIHUATANEJO
* SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 102.4W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 102.4W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 102.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.6N 103.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.5N 105.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.1N 106.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.8N 107.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 102.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA