000 WTPZ22 KNHC 162033 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 2100 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 100.4W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 100.4W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 100.0W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.2N 101.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.8N 104.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.8N 106.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.5N 108.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 21.0N 110.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.5N 113.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 100.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA