000
WTPZ22 KNHC 161456
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1500 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N  99.4W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  60SE  40SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 120SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N  99.4W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N  99.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.8N 100.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.0N 102.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.3N 103.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.5N 105.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 21.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N  99.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA