000
WTPZ22 KNHC 160857
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF POLO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  98.4W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  60SE  40SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 150SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  98.4W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N  98.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 12.8N  99.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.1N 101.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.5N 102.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.9N 104.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.8N 107.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 19.7N 108.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.5N 110.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N  98.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN