000
WTPZ22 KNHC 211431
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
1500 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 122.1W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 280SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 122.1W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 122.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.7N 122.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.7N 124.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.8N 125.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.8N 127.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.5N 129.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.3N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 28.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 122.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN