000 WTPZ22 KNHC 210254 TCMEP2 HURRICANE RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 0300 UTC MON OCT 21 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL- STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 102.0W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 102.0W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 101.9W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.3N 102.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.6N 101.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.8N 101.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.0N 101.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.7N 103.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 16.2N 105.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 16.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 102.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN