000
WTPZ22 KNHC 102031
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012
2100 UTC FRI AUG 10 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 119.6W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 119.6W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 119.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.8N 119.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.5N 120.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.5N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.0N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 119.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA