000 WTPZ22 KNHC 250232 TCMEP2 HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 0300 UTC FRI MAY 25 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF MANZANILLO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.9W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.9W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 106.1W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.1N 105.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.4N 105.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.2N 105.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.3N 105.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.5N 105.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 19.1N 105.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 105.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART