000 WTPZ22 KNHC 242054 TCMEP2 HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 2100 UTC THU MAY 24 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CABO CORRIENTES NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF MANZANILLO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 106.4W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 106.4W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 106.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.4N 105.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 35SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.6N 105.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.8N 105.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.5N 105.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.5N 105.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 19.0N 105.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 106.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN