000
WTPZ22 KNHC 240851
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
0900 UTC THU MAY 24 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST FROM PUNTO TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.  A
HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM PUNTO TELMO WESTWARD TO
CABO CORRIENTES.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
  
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 107.5W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 107.5W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 107.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.9N 107.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.1N 106.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.2N 106.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.9N 105.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.0N 106.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 18.5N 107.0W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 18.0N 108.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 107.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN