000
WTPZ22 KNHC 231445
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
1500 UTC WED MAY 23 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 107.6W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 107.6W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 107.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.0N 108.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.7N 108.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.7N 107.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.8N 106.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 17.5N 106.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 17.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 107.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG