000
WTPZ22 KNHC 221437
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
1500 UTC TUE MAY 22 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 104.0W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 104.0W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 103.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 11.9N 105.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 12.8N 106.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 13.7N 106.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.6N 106.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 104.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 18.0N 105.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 104.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG