000
WTPZ22 KNHC 212046
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
2100 UTC MON MAY 21 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.6N 101.0W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.6N 101.0W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.4N 100.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 10.2N 102.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 11.3N 103.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 12.4N 104.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 13.6N 105.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.5N 105.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 17.0N 104.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 18.0N 102.5W...ON THE COAST OF MEXICO
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.6N 101.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG