000
WTPZ22 KNHC 172035
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011
2100 UTC WED AUG 17 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GREG.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 106.5W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  20 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 106.5W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 105.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.9N 109.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 45NE  35SE  25SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.5N 111.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  45SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  75SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.9N 113.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  45SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  75SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.2N 115.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  45SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  75SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 118.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 20.0N 121.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 20.0N 123.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 106.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN