000
WTPZ22 KNHC 170832
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011
0900 UTC WED AUG 17 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 102.2W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 102.2W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 101.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.6N 104.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.4N 107.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  25SE   0SW  35NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  45SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 45NE  35SE  20SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.4N 112.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  35SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.1N 115.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  35SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 20.5N 120.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 102.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI