000
WTPZ22 KNHC 170234
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011
0300 UTC WED AUG 17 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 100.8W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 100.8W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 100.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.6N 102.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.4N 105.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.1N 108.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  45SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.8N 111.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.9N 115.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 55NE  50SE  40SW  55NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  75SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 19.8N 117.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 20.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 100.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN