000
WTPZ22 KNHC 162032
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011
2100 UTC TUE AUG 16 2011
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N  99.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N  99.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  99.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.6N 101.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.6N 104.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.4N 107.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  45SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...105NE  90SE  75SW 105NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 19.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 20.0N 118.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N  99.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG