000 WTPZ22 KNHC 192030 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011 2100 UTC SUN JUN 19 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO EAST OF ZIHUATANEJO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 101.2W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 101.2W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 100.7W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.3N 102.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.5N 103.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.8N 103.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.9N 105.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 20.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 101.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN