000 WTPZ22 KNHC 191432 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011 1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 99.9W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 99.9W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 99.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.4N 101.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.6N 102.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.0N 103.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.4N 104.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...105NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.5N 107.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 99.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN