000
WTPZ22 KNHC 221443
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022009
1500 UTC MON JUN 22 2009
 
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM
LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
AT 800 AM...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO
CORRIENTES.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
AT 800 AM...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM
LAZARO CARDENAS TO ZIHUATANEJO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.0W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  90SE  60SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.0W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 101.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.7N 102.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.8N 103.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.0N 104.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.0N 106.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 22.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 22.0N 116.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 102.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN