000
WTPZ21 KNHC 071451
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112023
1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 115.7W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  932 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 390SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 115.7W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 115.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.0N 117.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.3N 120.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.5N 123.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.8N 125.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.1N 127.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.2N 128.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 25.4N 130.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 25.3N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 115.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/CAMPOSANO