000
WTPZ21 KNHC 281442
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012023
1500 UTC WED JUN 28 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 108.0W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE  45SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 108.0W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 107.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.4N 109.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.6N 110.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.8N 112.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.1N 113.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.4N 114.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.8N 115.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 17.4N 116.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 17.5N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 108.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG