000
WTPZ21 KNHC 170831
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062022
0900 UTC SUN JUL 17 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.9W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  60SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.9W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 105.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.7N 107.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.4N 109.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.0N 111.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.4N 114.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.1N 116.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.0N 118.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 21.1N 123.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.5N 127.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 105.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI