000
WTPZ21 KNHC 110234
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112021
0300 UTC WED AUG 11 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 115.4W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 130SE 160SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 300SE 240SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 115.4W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 115.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.7N 116.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  90SE  90SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.9N 118.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  70SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.0N 120.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.1N 124.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.3N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 28.4N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 115.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART