000
WTPZ21 KNHC 172031
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062021
2100 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 125.3W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  947 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 125.3W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 124.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.3N 126.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.8N 128.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.1N 130.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.1N 132.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.0N 134.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.6N 137.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 14.7N 142.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 14.0N 148.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 125.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY