000
WTPZ21 KNHC 150850
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062021
0900 UTC THU JUL 15 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 117.6W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 117.6W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 117.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.3N 118.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.2N 120.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.4N 125.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.3N 127.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 14.4N 131.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 14.5N 135.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 117.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN