000
WTPZ21 KNHC 150234
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062021
0300 UTC THU JUL 15 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 116.7W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 116.7W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 116.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.4N 118.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.3N 121.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.7N 124.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 14.8N 130.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 15.0N 134.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 116.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH