000
WTPZ21 KNHC 160846
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212019
0900 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.2N  99.2W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.2N  99.2W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.2N  98.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z  9.0N 100.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z  8.9N 102.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z  9.0N 103.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z  9.4N 104.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 10.1N 106.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 10.5N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.2N  99.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN