000 WTPZ21 KNHC 300833 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO * ISLAS MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS...AND WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 106.4W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 106.4W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 105.9W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.2N 107.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.1N 109.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.9N 110.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.0N 111.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.0N 112.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 106.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH