000
WTPZ21 KNHC 281438
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062019
1500 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 129.8W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 129.8W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 129.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.6N 132.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.1N 134.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.6N 137.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.3N 140.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.6N 145.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 16.6N 149.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 17.1N 154.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 129.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART