000
WTPZ21 KNHC 151439
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016
1500 UTC THU SEP 15 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 122.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 122.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 121.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.7N 123.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.5N 125.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.5N 128.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 130.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.6N 135.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 20.2N 140.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 21.0N 143.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 122.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH