000
WTPZ21 KNHC 141500
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016
1500 UTC WED SEP 14 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 119.1W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 119.1W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 119.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.8N 121.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.7N 123.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.6N 126.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 131.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 20.0N 136.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 21.5N 140.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 119.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN