000
WTPZ21 KNHC 190234
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015
0300 UTC THU NOV 19 2015
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.1W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.1W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 106.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.7N 106.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.6N 108.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 19.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 21.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 106.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA