000
WTPZ21 KNHC 182038
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015
2100 UTC WED NOV 18 2015
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 107.0W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   0 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 107.0W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 107.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.4N 107.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 14.3N 108.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.2N 110.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.6N 111.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.2N 114.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 18.6N 115.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 20.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 107.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN