000
WTPZ21 KNHC 181554
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E
SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015
1600 UTC WED NOV 18 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 107.2W AT 18/1600Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 107.2W AT 18/1600Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.3N 107.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.8N 107.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.8N 108.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.8N 110.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.4N 113.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 18.1N 114.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 20.5N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 107.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN