000
WTPZ21 KNHC 041439
TCMEP1

HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
1500 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 109.6W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 109.6W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 109.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 23.2N 107.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  80SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 25.3N 107.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 109.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN