000
WTPZ21 KNHC 040834
TCMEP1

HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0900 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 110.0W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 110.0W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 110.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.8N 109.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.0N 108.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.1N 107.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 26.0N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 110.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH