000
WTPZ21 KNHC 032043
TCMEP1

HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
2100 UTC MON NOV 03 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
VANCE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 110.8W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 110.8W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.8N 110.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 109.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.4N 108.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.4N 108.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.0N 108.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 110.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI