000
WTPZ21 KNHC 020841
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0900 UTC SUN NOV 02 2014
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 106.5W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  30SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 106.5W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 105.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.0N 108.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  60SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.7N 110.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.5N 110.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.1N 110.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.9N 109.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 20.5N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 22.0N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 106.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG