000
WTPZ21 KNHC 020233
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0300 UTC SUN NOV 02 2014
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 105.4W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 105.4W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 104.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.2N 107.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.6N 109.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.3N 110.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.0N 110.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.8N 109.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 21.0N 108.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.0N 108.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 105.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART