000
WTPZ21 KNHC 012033
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
2100 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 104.4W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 104.4W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.8N 103.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 10.8N 106.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.0N 108.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.2N 111.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.7N 109.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.5N 108.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N 108.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 104.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN