000
WTPZ21 KNHC 011447
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
1500 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.6N 103.2W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.6N 103.2W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.5N 102.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 10.2N 104.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.1N 107.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.5N 109.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.3N 110.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.1N 109.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 22.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.5N 106.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.6N 103.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE